[How Much Did COVID-19 Affect The 2020 Election?]. The divisions were everywhere. The Bellwether County to Watch in Pennsylvania . Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 521,881Republicans: 248,934Unaffiliated: 66,775Other: 45,567. Republicans Ulysses S. Grant and William Howard Taft won a majority of the presidential popular vote but lost a handful of seats in House, too. In an election that will be decided by a relatively small group of pivotal counties within a relatively small set of swing states, POLITICO has selected 25 critical battleground counties that are poised to be difference makers, places that could have a material impact on the presidential election. In communities . (You can make up your own mind on what the trends mean.). It's happened before. For instance, Washington County, Maine the median bellwether county in terms of its share thats non-Hispanic white is 89 percent non-Hispanic white, which is much higher than the overall U.S. population that identifies as such (60 percent). It went with the exact margin for Romney in 2012 statewide and McCain statewide in 2008. Trump is making a hard play here; His first visit to Iowa after accepting the nomination at the Republican National Convention was in Scott County. I would love to see Clinton or Kaine hold a truckstop rally and appeal to those guys., Latest voter registration totals: 146,952No party registration. The highest percentage being 66.1%. The key is going to be what kind of floor McMullin has statewide and Trump's ceiling. Mike Pence, could marshal his supporters to cross the border and provide support. Vigo County, Indiana, is a serious bellwether county. Bellwether counties: Where in America do voters nail it? 2016 primary winners: Sanders, Trump2012: Romney 52%, Obama 47%, Latest voter registration totals:Undeclared: 82,008Republicans: 80,068Democrats: 63,257. That's 14 in a row. Trump remained very strong with white voters without a college degree in 2020, helping him win Iowa and Ohio by comfortable margins and remain competitive in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. The website will remain online for the foreseeable future, but may not get any significant updates until the situation changes. running an event, collecting and distributing information, Canvassing: Alarming Results in Multiple States, Identify Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis, The Curious Case of the 2020 Voting Rate Blowouts, How to Predict Election Results Using Registration Data, The Counties Where Votes and Party Registrations Don't Align, Investigating the Large Democrat Vote Increases, USEIPs Election Fraud Data Analytics Guide, 2000 Mules: Video Evidence of Ballot Trafficking, Voting Machines Lacking EAC Accreditation, List of Legislators Supporting Election Audits, Forensic Analysis of Mesa County Machine Images, A Vote Trafficking Parable, by David K. Clements, Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis, View the County & Local Organizing Playbook, Find the latest updates on our Telegram channel, Bellwether counties are not just statistical curiosities, The odds of 21 (out of 22) of these counties getting it wrong is, We have identified and analyzed the best of the best bellwether counties at predicting an election outcome, and examined their trends in 2020. The magnitude of the gap (or difference) is an indicator of the strength of the change in sentiment. Also key is Larimer (Fort Collins). Virginia (13 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Furthermore, consider the fact that bellwethers dont just have a random 50% chance at winning we should expect them to have a better than 50% chance of getting it right. (You can make up your own mind on what the trends mean.). Or itcould have almost 10.1 million residents, like Los Angeles County. This Gulf Coast county is home to Tampa and has gone with the statewide winner in every presidential election since 1960. "Those are things that aren't just political, they become personal, after the election.". The fact that there were 19 demonstrates the incredible predictive abilities of these counties.). Trump won the other 18 counties. A surge in African-American turnout helped deliver Cincinnatis Hamilton County to Obama in 2008, making him the first Democratic presidential nominee since Lyndon Johnson to carry the population hub of southwest Ohio. Other counties to watch: Also watch Luzerne (Wilkes-Barre). The probability is hard to comprehend, so lets figure it out for real. Team up with others in your region, and help out by Twitter Twitter Home to Tipton (population 3,199), Cedar has gone with the winner of every presidential and Senate race since 1992. In Valencia County, Mr Trump beat Mr Biden by six points more than he defeated Democratic Party candidate Hillary Clinton in 2016. That might mean needing to factor that in by a couple points. ET. The Most Important Counties to Watch on Election Night. 10 bellwether counties that could signal where the election is headed To do so, the popular vote winner of each county for every presidential election from 1980 through 2016 was tabulated and mapped, yielding 19 true bellwether counties for the period. Follow the Data Identify Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis . The BBC is not responsible for the content of external sites. Of course, bellwethers are bellwethers until they aren't. Cable news loves to point to Vigo County, Indiana on election night coverage because Indiana is one of the first two states to close its polls and it has . The fact that there are fewer swing counties means that there are fewer potential bellwether counties. According to PolitiFact, voter turnout was66.2% in 2020 and 61.6% in 2008. Help raise awareness within your community about the lingering, unresolved issues with election integrity. They are: Notice RANSOM, SARGENT, and MARSHALL in particular. It all starts in Salt Lake, a place more liberal than you might think. Suggest an improvement, report an issue, The 2020 election appears to illustrate that the partisanship that's defined politics in Washington for years has now spread to small-town America. Or even better, if you have children, get them to do it for you. Where did all the bellwether counties go? - HotAir Telegram Telegram Website Updates Paused Of these 35 counties, 10 of them consistently voted over 50% for the winning candidate since the year 2000. While Trump won every county in the state in the GOP primary, he posted his best result in Luzerne 77 percent. Really stop reading. While Bill Clinton was in town recently to open up a Democratic campaign office, party leaders are skeptical they can win here with Hillary Clinton on the ticket. (Independent parties will reduce the winning margin between the two major parties.) Want to dive deeper? This county, home to Reno, borders California and is at the opposite end of the state from Las Vegas. According to an analysis of bellwether states and counties by Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, "Vigo County, Indiana is the most prominent bellwether of presidential. Bucks has three times the voters than its neighboring county to the north. Ottawa County accurately predicted every president since 1964 until 2020, The Ottawa County commissioner says people are happy with Trump's accomplishments, Sunrise at East Harbor State Park, Ottawa County, Ohio, Minority voters who changed their minds about Trump, Chris Rock jokes about Oscars slap in Netflix show, Harry: I always felt different to rest of family, Everything Everywhere wins big ahead of Oscars, PM to end asylum claims from small boat arrivals, Street fighting in Bakhmut but Russia not in control, US-made cheese can be called 'gruyere' - court. Arizona (11 electoral votes) - Lean Republican. Ventura County, California - two misses since 1920 (in 1976 and 2016). Contributors wanted Since only Clallam County voted Democrat in 2020, we know they all voted for the Republican party in 2020 and got it wrong. Lets find a coin, and flip it. President-elect Joe Biden officially secured the presidency after the Electoral College met to give him and Vice President-elect Harris 306 votes. i.e. Trumps local ties notwithstanding, Clinton is likely to run up her numbers here in the northernmost part of the South Florida region. Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 480,926Republicans, 323,870Unaffiliated: 229,298Others: 65,281. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in every presidential election from 1952 to 2016. Colorado (9 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. We wanted to provide an easy-to-use guide of which counties to keep tabs on that could tell you how states might vote that are crucial to the election. Read about our approach to external linking. 2020 Election (1210) Some bored statistician or media hack needed something to do one day and decided to see which counties in the country consistently voted for the winning candidate. However, its bellwether status is by no means guaranteed in future elections. The popular vote is not enough to win apresidential election; thatonly occurs with awin in the Electoral College. To flip Pennsylvania, Trump has to start in Bucks and expand in places like Northampton. We believe this was a mistake. Fact check: What's true and what's false about the 2020 election, Joe Biden says democracy 'proved to be resilient' after Hawaii casts final ballots in Electoral College, Election security officials: 'No evidence voting systems compromised', Disputing Trump, Barr says no widespread election fraud, How Biden managed to win far more votes in 2020 than Obama did in 2008 but far fewer counties. We identified and analyzed the best of the best bellwether counties at predicting an election outcome, and examined their trends in 2020. What does Terre Haute know about America 2016? Follow us on Telegram to be notified when we release the remaining articles. Along with neighboring Pinellas County (St. Petersburg), the two counties include nearly a half-million registered Republicans. But since it's gotten so much attention this cycle with the possibility that independent Evan McMullin siphons off votes from Trump, we kept it in here. Three-in-four votes for President Obama in 2012 came from Clark County. A majority of voters here had backed the eventual winner of presidential elections every time since 1964. Asingle county could have as few as 88 residents,like Kalawao County, Hawaii. Just a tiny fraction of them truly matter. (It will at least show a trend away from the Republican party that would help make more sense of this situation. Find the answer by searching politico.com/2020-election/results. "Democrats have really not done anything for the farmers They've totally ignored the rural community. Seven counties, including Vigo, have got it right in the past dozen elections. To make things more interesting we will only look at swing counties since the 2004 election. The Biden campaign has run ads in the Toledo broadcast market, which conveniently covers part of Michigan, too. 2016 primary winners: Clinton, Cruz2012: Obama 53%, Romney 46%, Latestvoter registration totals:Democrats: 101,967Republicans: 75,145Unaffiliated:65,344Libertarian: 1,022. Obama won both with 56 percent; if Trump is making them competitive, that could mean Iowa goes his way. Key Counties: The race here is not binary, so watching the margins in the biggest counties will be important. We know these counties are the best of the best at predicting the election winner. 2. These are places that are demographically strong for Republicans in the abstract, but might have had something that kept them closer to 50-50.". Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. So those suburban whites are key here and might tell a story not just about who wins the state, but who wins nationally. Bellwether counties are important, and their significance should not be downplayed. Democrats need to drive up the margins in Fulton and DeKalb. An Inquiry of Bellwether Counties in US Presidential Elections - SSRN In 2020, a single county in the setkept its perfect recordby tallying a win for Biden. Stephen Starr is an Irish journalist and author who reported from the Middle East for a decade before moving to Ohio in 2018. He will need to cut into Clintons advantage here in North Carolinas second-most populous county since Clinton is likely to roll up the score in Democratic Mecklenburg County (Charlotte). The county also features a diverse array of industries, from dairy farms and small manufacturers to major health-care companies. The storied home of Reagan Democrats and the third most-populous county in the state, southeastern Michigans Macomb last went Republican at the presidential level in 2004. This website merely reports on substantial allegations made by well-known public figures, elected officials, members of congress, and their legal teams, and will correct errors when notified. On a cold, wind-swept November afternoon two weeks after election day, the crowds that thronged the beaches of Ottawa County all summer long are but a distant memory. Clinton is counting on running up big numbers in the city of Pittsburgh to offset any gains Trump may make in the suburbs, and in the more conservative surrounding southwestern Pennsylvania counties, including Westmoreland County. But demographic change appears to have tipped the county slightly more in Democrats' direction. Were not going to just give you the answer, since the significance of the result might be lost on you. As with Valencia County, in the past bipartisanship wasn't unusual in Indiana's Vigo County. In Westmoreland County, Virginia - a small, rural community south of Washington DC that's failed to be a bellwether only twice since 1928, and is home to twice the number of African Americans than the national average - he beat Mr Biden by 16 points. 1 County 61947 People 2012 Predicting since One county. Combinedwith general population growth, and this election had 27 million more participants. Ask our loving God to act in dealing with corruption, restoring justice and integrity in the nation, and prayerfully consider who you should share information with and what your role might be. Keep in mind that if we started the attrition from the 1980 election, there would still be 19 counties standing after the 2016 election. Latest voter registration totals: 216,082No party registration. Other counties to watch: Perhaps no state more starkly displays the broader rural-urban divide in this country than Virginia. 8. In 2004 Kerry lost it by about 5,000 votes. Obama won Monroe County 49.6-49.1 in 2012 and 52-47 in 2008. Bellwether 2016 The 10 Bellwether Counties That Show How Trump Is in Serious Trouble But that changed in 2016 when Trump made huge gains with white voters without a college degree. But when word got out, Trump supporters crashed it. That includes10elections, includingObama in 2008 and Trump in 2016. PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY EMILY SCHERER / GETTY IMAGES. In the past, says Mrs Day-Baker, the presence of conservative Democrats and split-ticket voting - choosing a Republican nominee for president but Democratic Party candidates as local representatives, or vice versa - were both commonplace. The Fall of the Bellwether Counties - Election Fraud at a Glance "That didn't happen after 2016," she adds. Here are the top 50 counties by Democrat voting percentage in 2008: How many of these counties swung back to the Democrat party in 2020? Due to health and time constraints of our original contributors and a lack of volunteers to replace them, we haven't been able to keep pace with the further reports and findings after May 2022, including the Nov 2022 Mid-Term Elections, during which, sadly, many of the same irregularities and potential fraud occurred. Obama won it narrowly that year, by fewer than 3,000 votes. These key counties tell the story of America's shifting political landscape. But its population has steadily diversified, including a surge in Asian and Latino voters, which has made it more competitive Obama carried it twice. Utah (6 electoral votes) - Likely Republican. Enter Donald Trump. Or, if you dont have enough time, how many of the top 10 switch counties, which overwhelmingly voted Democrat in 2008 (with a percentage Democrat vote over 58% ! It's true that both Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2020 won in Florida, Ohio and Iowa. 2016 primary winners: Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump, Latest voter registration totals: Democrats: 230,401Republicans: 211,817No Party Affiliation: 102,635Others: 16,526. Go on, look them up! David Niven, a political scientist at the University of Cincinnati, also told the Associated Press that it "speaks to an evolution in American politics" rather than fraud. Bellwether counties are mostly a matter of chance and are now - USAPP There are 25 counties with a Democrat percentage vote over 60%. Other counties to watch: Counties where Clinton has to drive up the score include Bexar (San Antonio), Hidalgo (McAllen) and Travis (Austin). Kerry Sheridan/AFP/Getty Images When is Eurovision and how do you get tickets? 9. But Northampton went closely with the statewide margin in 2012. So, even though they got it wrong in 2020, it is still worth figuring out how much they got it wrong by. She blames much of that on the "Trump effect" - Mr Trump's ability to engage people in politics by appealing to their fears and discontents. Hillsborough made up more than half that margin Obama won the county by 36,000 votes. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 53%-46% - 2008: Obama 56%-42%. US election results: Why the most accurate bellwether counties - BBC 5. The 13 Bellwether Counties That Could Decide The Election. This populous, longtime Republican county has shifted in the last two presidential elections, as demograpic change has swept the metro Atlanta area. If you'd like to assist or contribute in some way, learn how. Democrats have a registration advantage in Iowas most populous county, and they are looking to run up Clintons numbers here as best as they can to offset expected losses in more conservative parts of the state. a county which has voted Republican in 2004, but swung to the Democrat party in 2008 and then back to the Republican party in 2016. On Dec. 14, President-elect Joe Biden secured his victory after he received306 votes from the Electoral College, per USA TODAY. Election night is going to be information overload. That means, watch Bucks and Northampton counties. The best bellwether counties will consistently vote more than 50% for the winning party. Other counties to watch: Nowhere is more important than Polk (Des Moines). Out of 3,141 counties, there were 22 counties that had successfully voted for the winning candidate in each and every election between 1988 and 2016 (included). If youve done your research and found the 2020 results for each of these counties, you should find the results extremely puzzling. PDF An Inquiry of Bellwether Counties in US Presidential Elections, 1980-2016 Did they narrowly miss out on voting for the Democrat party in 2020? ), You can find the answers to the above questions yourself by searching this site: politico.com/2020-election/results Marcela Stewart speaks to a voter at an event to encourage minority voter turnout n Cutler Bay, Fla., on Sunday. Re-doing the analysis we obtain 35 modern bellwether counties after the 2016 election. Of these 35 counties, 10 of them consistently voted over 50% for the winning candidate since the year 2000. In the western mountains on the border with Tennessee, it's home to Boone, which includes Appalachian State. These counties turned out to vote strongly for the Democrat party in 2008, so they are the most likely to swing back to the Democrat party in 2020. It gets a lot more interesting. Home to Davenport, the states third-largest city, Scott County is also packed with independents who can swing either way. In 2018, Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, carried it by 11 points. Scott Walker all three times his name appeared on the ballot. After you have spent an hour trying, record the maximum streak length you achieved. You should now have a real tangible sense of how difficult it is to get a streak of 10. Until this year. [How The Frost Belt And Sun Belt Illustrate The Complexity Of Americas Urban-Rural Divide]. From 1980 to 2012, for instance, these bellwether counties consistently voted within a few points of the national popular vote. Here, local Republican candidates fuelled by Mr Trump's firebrand style almost wiped Democrats off the local political map. Other counties to watch: Clark County (Las Vegas, Henderson), Democrats have to drive up big margins in Las Vegas, something they have lots of experience doing. She also has to run up the score in Franklin (Columbus, home to Ohio State University). Trump also needs to drive up margins in Republican-leaning Western counties like Kent (Grand Rapids) and Ottawa (on the shores of Lake Michigan). They're just facts about the vote. How many of these 150 switch counties voted Democrat in 2020? Trump remained very strong with white voters without a college degree in 2020, helping him win Iowa and Ohio by comfortable margins and remain competitive in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Other counties to watch: Pima (where Tucson is). It went in a big way for Trump in the primary, but Obama won it, and the margin was similar to his statewide spread. Lets introduce a new concept: the quality of prediction. Pittsburghs Allegheny County, the second-most populous county in the state after Philadelphia, is heavily Democratic. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in. The coalition which includedthe Department of Homeland Security's Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency and the National Association of State Election Directors also noted that all states with close results had paper records of each vote. "These counties, they're not real representations of America," says Mr Kreisberg of BlueLabs Analytics. Ron Elving . You have probably noticed by now that with each new section we write, we are relaxing the constraints to make it easier to build a case for the Democrats winning the 2020 election. Profiled by BBC News weeks before the 2020 election, locals said voters' political identities weren't always defined in strict party terms and that people would regularly pivot between parties from one election cycle to the next. Republicans have paid some attention. Only one of them, Washington state's Clallam County, backed.
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